In its latest report, New Energy Outlook 2024, BNEF estimates that this is the amount of solar and wind capacity needed worldwide to reach net zero emissions by mid-century, which is in line with the Paris Agreement.

According to commitments signed during COP28 in Dubai last year, renewable energy capacity needs to triple to 11TW by 2030. Then, in 2040, renewable energy capacity needs to double again.

The report also outlines another scenario, called the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS), which is based on decision-makers' reliance on historical efficiency trends. Solar and wind capacity is expected to reach half of the Net Zero Scenario by 2050, at around 16TW.

As shown in the figure above, several regions have solar PV as the largest contributor to electricity generation, as in Australia or India, while others have solar as one of the main contributing technologies.

Land scarcity

Such a large deployment of renewable energy capacity, especially onshore wind and solar PV, could lead to some land constraints in Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. Global land demand for both technologies will reach 2.9 million square kilometers by 2050, 15 times the amount used in 2023.

Another issue related to land demand is the increase in agricultural land to meet growing food demand and find a balance between food and energy needs.

System flexibility

Despite the importance of solar PV and wind, the report points out that neither can function properly if the system is not flexible. Batteries and smart electric vehicle charging are expected to be the main sources of flexibility, accounting for 12% of total demand together.

BNEF expects that by 2050, battery storage capacity will reach 4TW, 50 times the level in 2023.

A common challenge that continues to exist is grid capacity, which is expected to double from today's level to 111 million kilometers by 2050.

In addition, regarding green hydrogen, a quarter of the estimated 31TW of solar and wind power installed capacity will be needed by 2050 to power the nearly 3.8TW of electrolyzer capacity that will be operational.trina solar panels