Research points out that China's new energy era is coming. By the end of 2023, China's cumulative installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaics will reach 1.05 billion kilowatts, accounting for 40% of the world's total installed capacity of new energy. New energy is still accelerating its development, and terminal energy utilization will shift from traditional fossil energy to electricity. New energy power generation will become the main source of electricity, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaics will increase exponentially.

By the end of 2023, China's cumulative installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaics will reach 1.05 billion kilowatts, accounting for 40% of the world's total installed capacity of new energy. The development of new energy is still accelerating, and terminal energy utilization will switch from traditional fossil energy to electricity. By 2060, the electrification rate will increase from about 26% in 2023 to about 60%.

New energy power generation will become the main source of electricity, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will double. It is expected to reach 3.2 billion kilowatts and 3.5 billion kilowatts (3500GW) respectively by 2060, which is 11.3 times and 13.8 times that of 2020.

The study found that with a well-planned development path, new energy will remain an important engine of China's new economy. This study found that with a well-planned development path, new energy will remain an important engine of China’s new economy.

In the forty years from 2020 to 2060, the total investment demand for low-carbon power systems, hydrogen and biomass systems, CCUS, and supporting infrastructure in the industrial sector alone will exceed 80 trillion yuan; taking into account electric vehicles, industrial carbon reduction, and energy conservation Due to the impact of investment and consumption demand in the construction field and the improvement of competitiveness brought about by technological changes, low-carbonization will have a major driving effect on economic growth. Only energy and power construction and equipment manufacturing can contribute more than 5% of GDP added value.

The report points out that in the construction process of new power systems, controllable power supply is always the "ballast stone" for safety. On the basis of fully utilizing regulatory resources such as pumped hydropower storage, grid mutual aid, demand response, electric vehicles, and electrochemical energy storage, a certain scale of thermal power still needs to be retained and rationally deployed in the medium to long term until 2060, mainly to provide electricity and Adjustability.

To solve the security risks caused by the uneven distribution of new energy resources and load centers, it is necessary to continue to strengthen the construction of power grid infrastructure and accelerate the construction of a flexible interconnection architecture of "large power grid + small and medium-sized regional power grids + smart distribution grids and microgrids".

In addition to ensuring energy security, achieving high-quality transformation must pay more attention to innovation, especially the development, application and commercialization of new technologies in the energy field. For example, before 2030, my country will mainly focus on the research, development and application of zero-carbon power systems and related technologies. After 2035, hydrogen energy and new generation biofuel technologies are expected to reach a relatively mature level of commercialization.

In addition, the report also mentioned that the demand for land for large-scale development of wind power and photovoltaics has increased significantly, and new energy development and land spatial planning need to be coordinated. Taking centralized photovoltaic power generation as an example, if 3.5 billion kilowatts of photovoltaic installed capacity is built, approximately 87,500 square kilometers will be needed.

Affected by the ecological red line in the western region and restricted by construction land indicators in the eastern region, land use issues have gradually become one of the factors restricting the development of wind power and photovoltaics. It is necessary to coordinate the relationship between new energy development and land space planning and utilization in advance.

Looking to the future, the report believes that new energy will become an important driving force for the development of the new economy. The development of new energy will release huge potential in stimulating economic creation, creating jobs, and coordinating environmental pollution control. However, it should also be noted that the development of the new energy industry involves the support of 26 types of mineral resources, 15 of which have a foreign dependence of more than 50%, and require high attention to resource risks.

The report also emphasizes that in the context of economic development and carbon neutrality, it is necessary to strengthen "top-level design" and carry out new energy infrastructure investment and construction appropriately ahead of schedule.

It is expected that the total cumulative investment demand in the forty years from 2020 to 2060 will exceed 80 trillion yuan, of which investment areas mainly include new energy power and supporting flexibility investment, non-electric new energy infrastructure construction investment, and CCUS infrastructure construction investment, etc. .trina solar panels