Its PV Supply, Technology and Policy Report for Q2 2024 examines the market landscape of supply and policy in Europe and the United States, the global silicon supply chain and technology trends.

The import statistics for Europe are consistent with CEA's observation that "European PV supply is shrinking as many long-term suppliers shut down production or file for bankruptcy because they cannot compete with imports."

Companies such as battery and module maker Meyer Burger, Norwegian ingot producer NorSun and polysilicon producer REC have all suspended or abandoned European plants in the past 12 months due to unsustainable market conditions.

In its assessment of Europe's policies to support solar manufacturing, the CEA was cautious. It points to three policies that could support solar production: the Forced Labour Ban, the Net Zero Industries Act (NZIA) and the Critical Raw Materials Act.

The NZIA, which came into effect in late June, aims to reach 30GW of PV manufacturing capacity across the value chain. "This regulation will create more convenient conditions for manufacturers to invest, but its overall impact is reduced by providing no financial incentives for any technology," the CEA said.

If the EU wants to compete with supply chains from China or Southeast Asia, it continues, it will need a "massive funding support program similar to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)," "but at present, this has not been hinted at or anticipated."

The NZIA includes provisions for "non-price criteria" in public auctions, which would support EU-made solar products but lack direct funding on the scale of the IRA.

The forced labor ban won't take effect until 2027, when the CEA says suppliers will have "ample time to assess supply chains and ensure they are complying with regulations." The ban also places the "burden of proof" on the European Commission rather than external importers, which could create difficulties in terms of supply chain visibility.

Advocates say the burden of proof must be reversed if supply chain visibility laws are to be successfully implemented.

The report also presents information on the expansion of China's seven largest PV module producers, about 40% of which (based on this year's statistics) will be shipped to Europe.

There is no doubt that Jinko, Longi, Trina Solar, JA, Tongwei, Atlas and Chint Solar will ship more in 2024 than in 2023, with total shipments reaching 525GW according to CEA's estimates.

CEA also said that global module and battery capacity will expand by more than 300GW each this year, in addition to about 600GW of new polysilicon capacity. Global capacity already far exceeds demand, and a January report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) said global targets could be met without new solar capacity by the end of the decade.jinko solar panels